ANALYSING THE NEXUS OF WEATHER ON COTTON PRODUCTION IN SINDH PAKISTAN: USING ARDL BOUND TEST

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have impacts on plants, crops, and insect pests, and pose substantial pressures to sustainable food security. This research investigates the impact of weather changes on the production of cotton crops in Sindh, Pakistan by analyzing both short-term and long-term effects. Hence by employing annual time-series data of 58 years from 1961 to 2018 to explore the causal relationship between climate variables and specifically cotton production. For this purpose the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied and was significantly stationary at 1st difference, ensuring robust econometric analysis. In addition to understanding the long-run and short-run effects, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test was applied. Short-term findings reveal that a 1% increase in logged annual cotton area (CA) leads to a 0.671% rise in cotton production (CP), and a similar 1% increment in logged annual rainfall in kharif (R) results in a 0.224% increase in cotton production. The long-term relationships between weather variables and cotton yields were confirmed through the Johansen cointegration test, suggesting persistent climate impacts over time. It is recommended that authorities identify and promote the cultivation of temperature variation-tolerant cotton varieties and enhance the focus on agricultural research and technological innovation. To support these initiatives, timely and farm-specific climate change information should be disseminated. Adoption of advanced, cost-effective agricultural technologies can significantly improve crop yields. These strategic responses are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on agriculture in Sindh, ensuring sustainable cotton production and economic stability for cotton farming communities.