IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTIVITY IN KHYBAR PAKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change is currently the most significant concern on the planet. This study examined the impacts of climate change on rice yield across agro-ecological zones of Khybar Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. This study focused only on four districts across four agroecological zones in Khybar Pakhtunkhwa based on the availability of data on areas under rice, rice production, and meteorological variables. Districts Swat from Zone A, Mansehra from Zone B, Mardan from Zone C, and D.I. Khan from Zone D were selected. This study covered 33 years (1986-2018) of data across these four districts. Panel unit root tests of LLC and IPS suggested that all variables included in the model were stationary. Durbin Wu Hausman's test favored the fixed effect model compared to the random effect model. Diagnosis of fixed effect model results showed that it was plagued with problems of cross-sectional dependency, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. Final findings were estimated using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model to overcome the problems in the fixed effect model. Results revealed that area under rice crop has a positive and significant effect on rice yield. The estimated critical temperature for the maximum yield of rice was 34.48 ºC in the sowing stages, 35.85 ºC in the vegetative stages, and 29.43 ºC in the maturity stages, and Rainfall in the vegetative stages was 152 mm. It is concluded that rice yield showed a decline when temperature and rainfall exceeded the critical levels. The government needs to use afforestation and other appropriate measures to keep the temperature from rising in these three zones (zones A, C and D). The extension department needs to inform rice growers about adaptation strategies to climate change.